Protected: EurUsd
July 27, 2009 by easezUsd/Cad
July 24, 2009 by easezLooking at this pair, EAS is preparing to take a longer term Position. Price tagged 1.0795, just 10 pips short of the March 31 low. From this level, price accelerated north. EAS is waiting for a slight retrace back to 1.0825, then will enter long, with a 200 pip stop and will move stop to b/e when / if price climbs +50 pips. Lot sizing is important here. One can always add to a Position after profits accrue. Going very light to start.
EAS Update
July 24, 2009 by easezGood Morning Everyone.
Just a few comments:
The U/CAD has decided to make a double bottom and now appears to be heading down near support on the Day Chart near 1.0785 where the pair made a short term double bottom and then price accelerated north nearly 900 pips. Once again, patience is the key on this pair when looking for a reversal back north on strong rejection or perhaps gradual retracement. We made our attempt at the reversal early, was up a about 20 pips and then the market decided it wanted to go lower. Careful not to get trapped into going long when price could continue to drop to near the Large Quarter Point of 1.0750. If Position Trading, a consideration is that if prices drops below 1.0750, then look for a retracement back to that level.
The Eur/Usd (EU) has stuggled to break 1.4300 this week with strong rejection at that level. Veteren EAS Subscribers know that the EU Bulls like to leave no price level un-covered. So, at the time of this writing, a retrace back up near 1.4230-50 is not out of its price action realm. Equilbrium is hovering near 1.4200. In fact, fibs on the Weekly Chart are showing that price is hugging the 50% retrace of the hi/lo from the last major swings. There is talk that the Euro is currently 30% overvalued against the USD. It’s one thing to accept that as so and anticipate a price drop. It’s another to trade it as a long term Position Hold. As Day Traders, we tend to be so focused on the smaller time frames, we miss the really big picture. Currently, there’s been a rally in the equity markets….a flight to risk appetite. These are tumultuous times in all markets and, while the “herd” is driving the EU north and holding, I prefer watching for signs of Euro weakness going forward into Q3. We also know the inverse relationship between the EU and the USDX. The latter is resting on its Daily lows with what appears more downward pressure to resume. However, the break down is not yet confirmed. And every major nations’ economy and currency against the USD will struggle should their currency valuations continue to appreciate against the USD. We’re experiencing a “balancing / redistribution act”, and as witnessed by the Swiss National Bank this year, intervention, whether overt or clandestine, by these nations’ central banks, is not out of the question. I’m treading lightly, margin-wise, until the market reveals itself. And this we may have to, again, patiently wait for.
Lastly, EAS had its second losing week since the inception of the Live version. It was primarily from one trade with a 100 pip stop on a small 1/4 size position. So, while the net loss this week in pips appears high, the relative drawdown was minimal as we exercised rational lot sizing and money management. Still, we post the overall pips and the process keeps the EAS record reporting real and honest.
Thanks to each and every one of you for your participation in EAS. If we don’t see you in Houston this weekend, from Texas, until then, y’all have the Best weekend ever. And remember, let’s keep our Life’s attitudes up and positive when out in the public. The world needs that right now. Extend some extra smiles and genuine warmth to complete strangers. Offer a piece of your own great inate humanity to others. It’s positively infectious you know.
